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Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?

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Author Info
Raddatz, Claudio

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Abstract

External shocks, such as commodity price fluctuations, natural disasters, and the role of the international economy, are often blamed for the poor economic performance of low-income countries. The author quantifies the impact of these different external shocks using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) approach and compares their relative contributions to output volatility in low-income countries vis-à-vis internal factors. He finds that external shocks can only explain a small fraction of the output variance of a typical low-income country. Internal factors are the main source of fluctuations. From a quantitative perspective, the output effect of external shocks is typically small in absolute terms, but significant relative to the historic performance of these countries.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3680.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3680

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Inequality; Macroeconomic Management; Achieving Shared Growth; Fiscal&Monetary Policy;

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Sebastian Sosa, 2008. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mexico: How Important are U.S. Factors?," IMF Working Papers 08/100, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "Explaining policy volatility in developing countries," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/583, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eliza M. Lis & Christiane Nickel, 2009. "The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Budget Balances and Implications for Fiscal Policy," Working Paper Series 1055, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Raddatz, Claudio, 2009. "The wrath of God : macroeconomic costs of natural disasters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5039, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Olaberria, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele, 2009. "Managing East Asia's macroeconomic volatility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4989, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Loayza, Norman V. & Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "The structural determinants of external vulnerability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4089, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jansen, Marion & Lennon, Carolina & Piermartini, Roberta, 2009. "Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ilan Noy, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Disasters," Working Papers 200707, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Chauvet, Lisa & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2008. "Aid, Volatility and Growth Again: When Aid Volatility Matters and When It Does Not," Working Papers RP2008/78, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  10. Tharavanij, Piyapas, 2007. "Capital Market and Business Cycle Volatility," MPRA Paper 4952, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  11. Guillaumont, Patrick & Korachais, Catherine & Subervie, Julie, 2008. "How Macroeconomic Instability Lowers Child Survival," Working Papers RP2008/51, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2008. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," MPRA Paper 17315, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0604, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
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