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Institutions and Business Cycles

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  • Altug, Sumru G.
  • Emin, Mustafa
  • Neyapti, Bilin

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between the main features of business cycles and the institutional and structural characteristics of countries of up to 62 industrial, emerging and formerly centrally planned economies from all continents. We derive the business cycle characteristics using the nonparametric Harding-Pagan approach. Our analysis reveals that institutional factors have significant associations with the duration and amplitude of business cycles. Examining the determinants of business cycle synchronization for the countries in our sample, we also demonstrate that the bilateral proximity of institutional and policy environments matters in addition to the gravity arguments, trade intensity and bilateral financial linkages used in earlier studies.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8728.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8728

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Keywords: business cycles; institutions; nonparametric analysis; synchronization;

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References

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  1. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
  2. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2011. "Market Freedom and the Global Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(1), pages 111-135, April.
  3. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
  4. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  5. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-62, May.
  7. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
  8. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Altug, Sumru G. & Bildirici, Melike, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Bilin Neyapti & Nazire Nergiz Dincer, 2010. "Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Regulation and Supervision : A cross-country investigation," Departmental Working Papers 1005, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  11. Imbs, Jean, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Bilin Neyapti & Nergiz Dincer, 2005. "Measuring the Quality of Bank Regulation and Supervision with an Application to Transition Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 79-99, January.
  13. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1998. "The Nordic Banking Crisis," IMF Occasional Papers 161, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
  15. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  16. Marco Arnone & Bernard J Laurens & Jean-Fran�ois Segalotto & Martin Sommer, 2009. "Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 263-296, June.
  17. Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2011. "Financial Regulation," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 216(1), pages F4-F9, April.
  18. Bilin Neyapti, 2009. "Performance of Monetary Institutions : Comparative Evidence," Departmental Working Papers 0902, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  19. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Altug, Sumru G. & Canova, Fabio, 2013. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin," Economics Working Papers 1258, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2012.
  3. Sumru Altug & Baris Tan & Gozde Gencer, 2011. "Cyclical Dynamics of Industrial Production and Employment: Markov Chain-based Estimates and Tests," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1101, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  4. Fatma Pinar Erdem & Erdal Ozmen, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," ERC Working Papers 1404, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jun 2014.
  5. Sumru Altug & Erhan Uluceviz, 2011. "Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1134, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

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