Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010
AbstractThis paper develops a set of leading indicators of industrial production growth and consumer price inflation for the period 2001-2010. The choice of indicators is based on pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implemented by Stock and Watson (2003), amongst others. We find that asset prices that reflect expectational factors or interest rates that capture the costs of borrowing for the Turkish economy tend to have the greatest predictive power for future real activity and inflation. Our findings provide evidence on the factors determining real activity and inflation in a period of disinflation and normalization for the Turkish economy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1134.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Real activity; inflation; leading indicators; out-of-sample forecasting; combination forecasts; inflation targeting; Turkey;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-12-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2011-12-05 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-CBA-2011-12-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CWA-2011-12-05 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-FOR-2011-12-05 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-12-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-12-05 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Carvalho Filho Irineu E, 2011.
"28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-46, July.
- de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2011. "28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 29100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Altug, Sumru G. & Emin, Mustafa & Neyapti, Bilin, 2012.
"Institutions and Business Cycles,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sumru Altug & Mustafa Emin & Bilin Neyapti, 2011. "Institutions and Business Cycles," KoÃ§ University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1109, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2005. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 849-856, November.
- Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2010.
"Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach,"
KoÃ§ University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers
1009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
- Altug, Sumru G. & Bildirici, Melike, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Wesley C. Mitchell & Solomon Fabricant, 1938. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc38-1, December.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael McCracken, 1999.
"Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
1241, Society for Computational Economics.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 1999. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Research Working Paper 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Aslihan Atabek & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Saygin Sahin�Z, 2005. "A New Composite Leading Indicator for Turkish Economic Activity," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 45-64, January.
- Altug, Sumru & Ashley, Richard A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 1999. "Are Technology Shocks Nonlinear?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(04), pages 506-533, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sumru Oz).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.