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ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

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  • Fabio Canova
  • Matteo Ciccarelli

Abstract

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering the West, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence coexist are local and transitory. The cyclical outlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin," Economics Working Papers 1258, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1258
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Methods; Business cycles; Mediterranean basin; Developing and developed countries.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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