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ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

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  • Fabio Canova

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  • Matteo Ciccarelli

Abstract

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering the West, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence coexist are local and transitory. The cyclical outlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1258.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision: Mar 2012
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1258

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian Methods; Business cycles; Mediterranean basin; Developing and developed countries.;

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  1. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-31, December.
  2. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2002. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," NBER Working Papers 9292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Thomas Helbling & Tamim Bayoumi, 2003. "Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages," IMF Working Papers 03/46, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002. "Argentina's Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 152-165, January.
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income per-capita: A Predictive Density Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2009. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0921, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2003. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Economics Working Papers 924, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2004.
  9. Wälti, Sébastien, 2009. "The myth of decoupling," MPRA Paper 20870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2012. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 627, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  11. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2007. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Discussion Papers 7_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  12. Sturm, Michael & Sauter, Nicolas, 2010. "The impact of the global financial turmoil and recession on Mediterranean countries’ economies," Occasional Paper Series 118, European Central Bank.
  13. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 233-261.
  14. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  15. Sumru Altug & Bilin Neyapti & Mustafa Emin, 2012. "Institutions and Business Cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 347-366, December.
  16. Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994. "Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 12, Stockholm School of Economics.
  17. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1265-1293, November.
  18. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Antonio Pesce, 2013. "Is Decoupling in action?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1252, European Regional Science Association.
  2. Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1241, Banco de Espa�a.

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