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How important is tourism for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations? Evidence from the Mediterranean

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  • Canova, Fabio
  • Dallari, Pietro
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    Abstract

    We quantify the importance of the tourism channel for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations to the Mediterranean basin. We use five destination countries and a number of source countries to provide broad evidence on the link. Source country output shocks produce important fluctuations in international tourism flows. Absent the tourism channel, the output effects in a typical destination country would be reduced by about one-fourth. Imported shocks account for an important portion of the fluctuations in destination countries variables. Policy prescriptions are discussed. JEL Classification: E32, C32

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1553.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131553

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    Related research

    Keywords: Bayesian random coefficient VARs; International Business Cycles; Mediterranean basin; Tourism flows;

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    1. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2007. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 713-737, 04.
    2. Sturm, Michael & Sauter, Nicolas, 2010. "The impact of the global financial turmoil and recession on Mediterranean countries’ economies," Occasional Paper Series 118, European Central Bank.
    3. Jarocinski, Marek, 2006. "Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison," Working Papers 124, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2012. "Do institutions and culture matter for business cycles?," Economics Working Papers 1314, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    5. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 47_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
    6. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "Estimating Multicountry Var Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 929-959, 08.
    7. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2004. "Has the Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy Changed in the Run-Up to EMU?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Robert Lanquar, 2011. "Tourism in the MED 11 Countries," CASE Network Reports 0098, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Fabio Canova & Alain Schlaepfer, 2012. "Has the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Affected Mediterranean Business Cycles?," Working Papers 548, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    11. Mayers, Sherry-Ann & Jackman, Mahalia, 2011. "Investigating the business cycle properties of tourist flows to Barbados," MPRA Paper 38646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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