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How important is tourism for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations? Evidence from the Mediterranean

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  • Canova, Fabio
  • Dallari, Pietro

Abstract

We quantify the importance of the tourism channel for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations to the Mediterranean basin. We use five destination countries and a number of source countries to provide broad evidence on the link. Source country output shocks produce important fluctuations in international tourism flows. Absent the tourism channel, the output effects in a typical destination country would be reduced by about one-fourth. Imported shocks account for an important portion of the fluctuations in destination countries variables. Policy prescriptions are discussed. JEL Classification: E32, C32

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1553.

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Date of creation: Jun 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131553

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Related research

Keywords: Bayesian random coefficient VARs; International Business Cycles; Mediterranean basin; Tourism flows;

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  1. Marek Jarocinski, 2006. "Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison," Working Papers 124, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  2. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
  3. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 0603, European Central Bank.
  4. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2006. "Has the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy changed in the run-up to EMU?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 737-776, April.
  5. Sturm, Michael & Sauter, Nicolas, 2010. "The impact of the global financial turmoil and recession on Mediterranean countries’ economies," Occasional Paper Series 118, European Central Bank.
  6. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 20125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2003. "Price differentials in monetary unions: The role of fiscal shocks," Economics Working Papers 923, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2005.
  8. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2012. "Do institutions and culture matter for business cycles?," Economics Working Papers 1314, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  9. Fabio Canova & Alain Schlaepfer, 2011. "Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?," Economics Working Papers 1267, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2012.
  10. Mayers, Sherry-Ann & Jackman, Mahalia, 2011. "Investigating the business cycle properties of tourist flows to Barbados," MPRA Paper 38646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Robert Lanquar, 2011. "Tourism in the MED 11 Countries," CASE Network Reports 0098, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
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