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Has the Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy Changed in the Run-Up to EMU?

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Author Info
Ciccarelli, Matteo
Rebucci, Alessandro

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Abstract

This Paper studies empirically the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy by means of time-varying, heterogenous coefficient models estimated in a numerical Bayesian fashion. Based on pre-EMU evidence from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, we find that (i) the long-run cumulative impact on output of a common, homoskedastic monetary policy shock has decreased in all countries after 1991. These declines are statistically significant and accompanied by some changes in the conduct of monetary policy over the same period. At the same time, we also find that (ii) cross-country differences in the effects of the shock analysed have not decreased over time.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4535.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4535

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian estimation; european monetary policy; Gibbs sampling; time-varying coefficient model; transmission mechanism;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Zsolt Darvas, 2009. "Monetary Transmission in three Central European Economies: Evidence from Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 0903, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Marek Jarociński, 2008. "Responses to monetary policy shocks in the east and the west of Europe - a comparison," Working Paper Series 970, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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