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Has the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy changed in the run-up to EMU?

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  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Rebucci, Alessandro

Abstract

This Paper studies empirically the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy by means of time-varying, heterogenous coefficient models estimated in a numerical Bayesian fashion. Based on pre-EMU evidence from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, we find that (i) the long-run cumulative impact on output of a common, homoskedastic monetary policy shock has decreased in all countries after 1991. These declines are statistically significant and accompanied by some changes in the conduct of monetary policy over the same period. At the same time, we also find that (ii) cross-country differences in the effects of the shock analysed have not decreased over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 50 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (April)
Pages: 737-776

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:50:y:2006:i:3:p:737-776

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  1. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Luigi Guiso & Anil K. Kashyap & Fabio Panetta & Daniele Terlizze, 1999. "Will a common European monetary policy have asymmetric effects?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-75.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1996. "What Does the Bundesbank Target?," NBER Working Papers 5764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1995. "Hierarchical analysis of SUR models with extensions to correlated serial errors and time-varying parameter models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 339-360, August.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  10. Zha, Tao, 1999. "Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 291-316, June.
  11. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 0240, European Central Bank.
  12. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 7151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
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