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ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin

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  • Canova, Fabio
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo

Abstract

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering the West, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Idiosyncratic causes still dominate domestic cyclical fluctuations in many countries. Convergence and divergence which coexist are local and transitory. The cyclical outlook for the next few years is rosier for the East than for the West.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 162-175

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:88:y:2012:i:1:p:162-175

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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Keywords: Bayesian methods; Business cycles; Mediterranean basin; Developing and developed countries;

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References

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  1. Sumru Altug & Fabio Canova, 2012. "Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 627, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Modelling and forecasting exchange rates with a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 233-261.
  3. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2004. "Similarities and convergence in G-7 cycles," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0404, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega, 2009. "Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe," Economics Working Papers 1158, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2012.
  5. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández, 2013. "On The Sources Of Aggregate Fluctuations In Emerging Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1265-1293, November.
  6. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002. "Online Appendix to Argentina's Lost Decade and the Subsequent Recovery Puzzle," Technical Appendices kydland02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  7. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income per-capita: A Predictive Density Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Financial globalization and real regionalization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 207-243, November.
  9. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E.J.M. Zarazaga, 2001. "Argentina's lost decade," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0401, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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  11. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2007. "Estimating Multi-country VAR models," Discussion Papers 7_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  12. Sumru Altug & Mustafa Emin & Bilin Neyapti, 2011. "Institutions and Business Cycles," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1109, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  13. Thomas Helbling & Tamim Bayoumi, 2003. "Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages," IMF Working Papers 03/46, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Javier García-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," NBER Working Papers 12629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Sébastien W�lti, 2012. "The myth of decoupling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3407-3419, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Ciccarelli & Eva Ortega & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2012. "Heterogeneity and cross-country spillovers in macroeconomic-financial linkages," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1241, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Antonio Pesce, 2013. "Is Decoupling in action?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1252, European Regional Science Association.

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