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The myth of decoupling

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  • Sébastien W�lti

Abstract

The decoupling hypothesis is the idea that business cycles in emerging market economies have become more independent from business cycles in advanced economies in recent years. Decoupling essentially amounts to a structural break in the degree of business cycle interdependence between the two groups of economies, and it can be tested as such. We develop an innovative measure of business cycle interdependence based on the Euclidean distance, available at the annual frequency, which allows for a proper test for a structural break in a graphical setup. We also make use of a standard econometric test. Both approaches point to the same conclusion: there has been no decoupling in recent years. If anything, the degree of business cycle interdependence has become stronger.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): 26 (September)
Pages: 3407-3419

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:26:p:3407-3419

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Daniela Gabor, 2011. "Paradigm shift? A critique of the IMF’s new approach to capital controls," Working Papers 1109, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
  2. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Williams, Tomas, 2012. "Emerging economies in the 2000s : real decoupling and financial recoupling," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5961, The World Bank.
  3. Kucera, David & Roncolato, Leanne & von Uexkull, Erik, 2010. "Trade contraction in the global crisis : employment and inequality effects in India and South Africa," ILO Working Papers 459401, International Labour Organization.
  4. Nenad Stanisic, 2013. "Convergence between the business cycles of Central and Eastern European countries and the Euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 63-74, July.
  5. Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "ClubMed? Cyclical fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin," Economics Working Papers 1258, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2012.
  6. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
  7. Basher, Syed Abul, 2010. "Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," MPRA Paper 21059, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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