Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty
AbstractHow can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy? The author discusses some recent approaches that can be used for that purpose under two alternative scenarios: (i) the policy-maker has one reference model for choosing policy but cannot take a stand as to how that model is misspecified, and (ii) the policy-maker, being uncertain about the economy's true structure, entertains multiple distinct models of the economy. The author shows how these approaches can be implemented in practice using as benchmark models simplified versions of Fuhrer and Moore (1995) and Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005).
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 06-13.
Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
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Uncertainty and monetary policy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-06-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2006-06-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-06-24 (Monetary Economics)
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