A macroeconomic framework for quantifying systemic risk
AbstractSystemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model allows us to examine the transition from “normal” states to systemic risk states. We calibrate our model and use it to match the systemic risk apparent during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We also use the model to compute the conditional probabilities of arriving at a systemic risk state, such as 2007/2008. Finally, we show how the model can be used to conduct a Fed “stress test” linking a stress scenario to the probability of systemic risk states.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 233.
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, B-1000 Bruxelles
Phone: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 25 34
Fax: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 31 62
Web page: http://www.nbb.be
More information through EDIRC
Liquidity; Delegation; Financial Intermediation; Crises; Financial Friction; Constraints;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-10-20 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2012-10-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2012-10-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2012-10-20 (Risk Management)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012.
"Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, pages 159-214
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159 - 214.
- Tobias Adrian & Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang, 2013.
"Financial stability monitoring,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2013-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kiley, Michael T. & Sim, Jae W., 2014. "Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 175-198.
- Lamont Black & Ricardo Correa & Xin Huang & Hao Zhou, 2013. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dewachter, Hans & Wouters, Raf, 2014.
"Endogenous risk in a DSGE model with capital-constrained financial intermediaries,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 241-268.
- Hans Dewachter & Raf Wouters, 2012. "Endogenous risk in a DSGE model with capital-constrained financial intermediaries," Working Paper Research 235, National Bank of Belgium.
- Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.