Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A macroeconomic framework for quantifying systemic risk

Contents:

Author Info

  • Zhiguo He

    ()
    (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business
    NBER)

  • Arvind Krishnamurthy

    ()
    (Northwestern University,Kellogg School of Management
    NBER)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model allows us to examine the transition from “normal” states to systemic risk states. We calibrate our model and use it to match the systemic risk apparent during the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We also use the model to compute the conditional probabilities of arriving at a systemic risk state, such as 2007/2008. Finally, we show how the model can be used to conduct a Fed “stress test” linking a stress scenario to the probability of systemic risk states.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp233En.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 233.

    as in new window
    Length: 53 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201210-233

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, B-1000 Bruxelles
    Phone: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 25 34
    Fax: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 31 62
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.nbb.be
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: Liquidity; Delegation; Financial Intermediation; Crises; Financial Friction; Constraints;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 159 - 214.
    2. Dewachter, Hans & Wouters, Raf, 2014. "Endogenous risk in a DSGE model with capital-constrained financial intermediaries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 241-268.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Paolo Colla & Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9," NBER Working Papers 18335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lamont Black & Ricardo Correa & Xin Huang & Hao Zhou, 2013. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Kiley, Michael T. & Sim, Jae W., 2014. "Bank capital and the macroeconomy: Policy considerations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 175-198.
    6. Tobias Adrian & Daniel Covitz & Nellie J. Liang, 2013. "Financial stability monitoring," Staff Reports 601, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201210-233. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.