This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Xin Huang
Hao Zhou
Haibin Zhu

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper we propose a framework for measuring and stress testing the systemic risk of a group of major financial institutions. The systemic risk is measured by the price of insurance against financial distress, which is based on ex ante measures of default probabilities of individual banks and forecasted asset return correlations. Importantly, using realized correlations estimated from high-frequency equity return data can significantly improve the accuracy of forecasted correlations. Our stress testing methodology, using an integrated micro-macro model, takes into account dynamic linkages between the health of major US banks and macro-financial conditions. Our results suggest that the theoretical insurance premium that would be charged to protect against losses that equal or exceed 15 % of total liabilities of 12 major US financial firms stood at $110 billion in March 2008 and had a projected upper bound of $250 billion in July 2008.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work281.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: Full PDF document
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work281.htm
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 281.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:281

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Email:
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).

Related research
Keywords: systemic risk; stress testing; portfolio credit risk; credit default swap; high-frequency data;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Edwin J. Elton, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Darrell DUFFIE & Andreas ECKNER & Guillaume HOREL & Leandro SAITA, . "Frailty Correlated Default," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-44, Swiss Finance Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Robert J. Daniels, 2005. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," DNB Working Papers 055, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Inui, Koji & Kijima, Masaaki, 2005. "On the significance of expected shortfall as a coherent risk measure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 853-864, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Lea Zicchino & Dimitrios Tsomocos & Charles Goodhart & Oriol Aspachs Bracon, 2006. "Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility," FMG Discussion Papers dp554, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Toni Gravelle & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2005. "The END: A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Econometric Analysis of Realized Covariation: High Frequency Based Covariance, Regression, and Correlation in Financial Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 885-925, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe13, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jose Giancarlo Gasha & Carlos I. Medeiros & Marcos Souto & Christian Capuano & Andre Santos & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2009. "Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling," IMF Working Papers 09/162, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS uses the data collected within the RePEc project, the largest online bibliographic database in Economics.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-20.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.