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Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs

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Author Info
Antje Berndt
Rohan Douglas
Darrell Duffie
Mark Ferguson
Abstract

This paper estimates the degree of variation over time in the price for bearing exposure to U.S. corporate default risk during 2000-2004, based on the relationship between default probabilities, as estimated by Moody’s KMV EDFs, and default swap (CDS) market rates. The default-swap data, obtained through CIBC from 39 banks and specialty dealers, allow us to establish a strong link between actual and risk-neutral default probabilities in the three sectors that we analyze: broadcasting and entertainment, healthcare, and oil and gas. We find dramatic variation over time in risk premia, from peaks in the third quarter of 2002, dropping by roughly 50% to late 2003.

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Paper provided by Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business in its series GSIA Working Papers with number 2006-E31.

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Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:1749033791

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  1. Eli M. Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2008. "A ratings-based approach to measuring sovereign risk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 26-39. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, . "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: an economic value and capital adequacy perspective," Bank of England working papers 339, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2006. "In Search of Distress Risk," NBER Working Papers 12362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Antonio Garcia Pascual & Renzo G. Avesani & Jing Li, 2006. "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool: A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket," IMF Working Papers 06/105, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Schmidt, Rafael & Schmieder, Christian, 2007. "Modelling dynamic portfolio risk using risk drivers of elliptical processes," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Byström, Hans, 2006. "The Microfinance Collateralized Debt Obligation: a Modern Robin Hood?," Working Papers 2006:14, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 21 Aug 2006.
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