Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models
AbstractThis paper investigates the forecasting performance for CDS spreads of both linear and non-linear models by analysing the iTraxx Europe index during the financial crisis period which began in mid-2007. The statistical and economic significance of the models’ forecasts are evaluated by employing various metrics and trading strategies, respectively. Although these models provide good in-sample performances, we find that the non-linear Markov switching models underperform linear models out-of-sample. In general, our results show some evidence of predictability of iTraxx index spreads. Linear models, in particular, generate positive Sharpe ratios for some of the strategies implemented, thus shedding some doubts on the efficiency of the European CDS index market.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42848.
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Credit default swap spreads; iTraxx; Forecasting; Markov switching; Market efficiency; Technical trading rules;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2012-12-10 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-FOR-2012-12-10 (Forecasting)
- NEP-ORE-2012-12-10 (Operations Research)
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