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A first-passage-time model under regime-switching market environment

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  • Kim, Mi Ae
  • Jang, Bong-Gyu
  • Lee, Ho-Seok
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we suggest a first-passage-time model which can explain default probability and default correlation dynamics under stochastic market environment. We add a Markov regime-switching market condition to the first-passage-time model of Zhou [Zhou, C., 2001. An analysis of default correlations and multiple defaults. Review of Financial Studies 14, 555-576]. Using this model, we try to explain various relationship between default probability, default correlation, and market condition. We also suggest a valuation method for credit default swap (CDS) with (or without) counterparty default risk (CDR) and basket default swap under this model. Our numerical results provide us with several meaningful implications. First, default swap spread is higher in economic recession than in economic expansion across default swap maturity. Second, as the difference of asset return volatility between under bear market and under bull market increases, CDS spread increases regardless of maturity. Third, the bigger the intensity shifting from bull market to bear market, the higher the spread for both CDS without CDR and basket default swap.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 12 (December)
    Pages: 2617-2627

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:12:p:2617-2627

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

    Related research

    Keywords: First-passage-time model Regime-switching model Default probability Default correlation Credit default swap;

    References

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    1. Bong-Gyu Jang & Hyeng Keun Koo & Hong Liu & Mark Loewenstein, 2007. "Liquidity Premia and Transaction Costs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2366, October.
    2. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "An Analysis of Default Correlations and Multiple Defaults," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 555-76.
    3. Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. So, Mike K P & Lam, K & Li, W K, 1998. "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 244-53, April.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
    8. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
    9. André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2003. "Discrete versus Continuous State Switching Models for Portfolio Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-075/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Sep 2003.
    10. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
    11. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
    12. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    13. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
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    Cited by:
    1. Eun, Cheol S. & Lee, Jinsoo, 2010. "Mean-variance convergence around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 856-870, April.
    2. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
    3. Brenda González-Hermosillo & Christian A Johnson, 2014. "Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe: The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece," IMF Working Papers 14/76, International Monetary Fund.

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