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Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe: The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece

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  • Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
  • Mr. Christian A Johnson

Abstract

This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model to measure sovereign financial distress. It examines how key European sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads affect each other; specifically, the paper analyses the volatility structure of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The stability of Germany is a close proxy for the resilience of the euro area as markets use Germany’s sovereign CDS as a hedge for systemic risk. Although most of the CDS changes for Germany during 2009–12 were due to idiosyncratic factors, market developments in Italy and Spain contributed significantly, likely due to their relative importance in the region. Changes in Greece’s sovereign CDS had no significant effect on Germany’s sovereign CDS despite initial widespread concerns about such linkages. Spain and Italy show a notable co-dependence in explaining each other’s volatility while Germany also plays an important role. It is found that extreme bad news led to persistent and nearly permanent effects on the stochastic volatility of European sovereign CDS spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mr. Christian A Johnson, 2014. "Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe: The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece," IMF Working Papers 2014/076, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Junye Li & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "How much of bank credit risk is sovereign risk? Evidence from the eurozone," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 990, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2020. "The Financial Connectedness Between Eurozone Core And Periphery: A Disaggregated View," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(7), pages 1674-1699, October.
    3. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    4. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    5. Camille Cornand & Pauline Gandré, 2013. "Home bias and self-fulfilling sovereign debt crisis," Post-Print halshs-00861603, HAL.
    6. Karimalis, Emmanouil & Kosmidis, Ioannis & Peters, Gareth, 2017. "Multi yield curve stress-testing framework incorporating temporal and cross tenor structural dependencies," Bank of England working papers 655, Bank of England.
    7. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    8. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    9. Mr. Christian A Johnson, 2013. "Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2013/145, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2017. "Regime-Dependent Sovereign Risk Pricing During the Euro Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 363-385.
    11. MacDonald, Ronald & Sogiakas, Vasilios & Tsopanakis, Andreas, 2015. "An investigation of systemic stress and interdependencies within the Eurozone and Euro Area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 52-69.
    12. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    13. Falagiarda, Matteo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2015. "The impact of fiscal policy announcements by the Italian government on the sovereign spread: A comparative analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 288-304.
    14. M. Falagiarda & W. D. Gregori, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Announcements of Italian Governments and Spread Reaction during the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Working Papers wp961, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Saka, Orkun & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2015. "ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-185.
    16. Leschinski, Christian & Bertram, Philip, 2017. "Time varying contagion in EMU government bond spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 72-91.

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