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Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe

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Author Info

  • Massimiliano Caporin

    ()
    (Univerista' di Padova)

  • Loriana Pelizzon

    ()
    (Univerista' Ca' Foscari Venezia and MIT Sloan)

  • Francesco Ravazzolo

    ()
    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) and BI Norwegian Business School)

  • Roberto Rigobon

    ()
    (MIT Sloan and NBER)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using CDS spreads for the major euro area countries. Using several econometric approaches (non linear regression, quantile regression and Bayesian quantile with heteroskedasticity) we show that propagation of shocks in Europe's CDS's has been remarkably constant even though in a signi cant part of the sample periphery countries have been extremely a ected by their sovereign debt and scal situations. Thus, the integration among the di erent countries is stable, and the risk spillover among countries is not a ected by the size of the shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2012/05.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 10 Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2012_05

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Keywords: Sovereign Risk; Contagion;

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References

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  1. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
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  16. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Linciano Nadia & Giordano Luca & Soccorso Paola, 2013. "Sovereign risk premia in the Euro Area and the role of contagion," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 66-70, January.
  2. Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News," Working Papers 2012/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Carmen Broto & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2013. "Disentangling contagion among sovereign cds spreads during the european debt crisis," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1314, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chouliaras, Andreas & Grammatikos, Theoharry, 2013. "News Flow, Web Attention and Extreme Returns in the European Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 51335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Valerie De Bruyckere & Maria Gerhardt & Glenn Schepens & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2012. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Working Paper Research 232, National Bank of Belgium.
  7. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2013. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1558, European Central Bank.
  8. Henri Audigé, 2013. "A new approach of contagion based on smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH models: An empirical application to the Greek crisis," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-2, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  9. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2012. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," MPRA Paper 49251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Caporin, Massimiliano, 2013. "Equity and CDS sector indices: Dynamic models and risk hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 261-275.
  11. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2012. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/13, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.

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