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Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe

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  • Massimiliano Caporin
  • Loriana Pelizzon
  • Francesco Ravazzolo
  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

This paper analyzes the sovereign risk contagion using credit default swaps (CDS) and bond premiums for the major eurozone countries. By emphasizing several econometric approaches (nonlinear regression, quantile regression and Bayesian quantile regression with heteroskedasticity) we show that propagation of shocks in Europe's CDS has been remarkably constant for the period 2008-2011 even though a significant part of the sample periphery countries have been extremely affected by their sovereign debt and fiscal situations. Thus, the integration among the different eurozone countries is stable, and the risk spillover among these countries is not affected by the size of the shock, implying that so far contagion has remained subdue. Results for the CDS sample are confirmed by examining bond spreads. However, the analysis of bond data shows that there is a change in the intensity of the propagation of shocks in the 2003-2006 pre-crisis period and the 2008-2011 post-Lehman one, but the coefficients actually go down, not up! All the increases in correlation we have witnessed over the last years come from larger shocks and the heteroskedasticity in the data, not from similar shocks propagated with higher intensity across Europe. This is the fi rst paper, to our knowledge, where a Bayesian quantile regression approach is used to measure contagion. This methodology is particularly well-suited to deal with nonlinear and unstable transmission mechanisms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18741.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18741

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," AQR Working Papers 201209, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2012.
  2. Linciano Nadia & Giordano Luca & Soccorso Paola, 2013. "Sovereign risk premia in the Euro Area and the role of contagion," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 66-70, January.
  3. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2012. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," CFS Working Paper Series 2012/13, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Caporin, Massimiliano, 2013. "Equity and CDS sector indices: Dynamic models and risk hedging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 261-275.
  5. Henri Audigé, 2013. "A new approach of contagion based on smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH models: An empirical application to the Greek crisis," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-2, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  6. Carmen Broto & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2013. "Disentangling contagion among sovereign cds spreads during the european debt crisis," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1314, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2013. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1558, European Central Bank.
  8. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena & Saka, Orkun, 2014. "ECB Policy and Eurozone Fragility: Was De Grauwe Right?," CEPS Papers 9414, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  9. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 8(26), pages 1-43.
  10. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.
  11. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. V. De Bruyckere & M. Gerhardt & G. Schepens & R. Vander Vennet, 2012. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/828, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  13. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2012. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," MPRA Paper 49251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Chouliaras, Andreas & Grammatikos, Theoharry, 2013. "News Flow, Web Attention and Extreme Returns in the European Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 51335, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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