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Financial indicators signalling correlation changes in sovereign bond markets

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  • De Santis, Roberto A.
  • Stein, Michael

Abstract

We use a Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH (STCC-GARCH) model applied to the euro area monetary policy rates and sovereign yields of Italy, Spain and Germany at 5-year maturity to estimate the threshold level of the signals above which the sovereign bond market moves to a crisis regime. We show that the threshold to a crisis regime for Italy and Spain is reached when (i) their 5-year sovereign yield spreads amount to 80-90 basis points; (ii) their 5-year CDS spreads amount to 120-130 basis points or (iii) the 5-year spread between the Kreditanstalt f JEL Classification: G12, G15, F36

Suggested Citation

  • De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2014. "Financial indicators signalling correlation changes in sovereign bond markets," Working Paper Series 1746, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141746
    Note: 185689
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    Cited by:

    1. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    2. van Wijnbergen, Sweder & Olijslagers, Stan & de Vette, Nander, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g," CEPR Discussion Papers 15478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A measure of redenomination risk," Working Paper Series 1785, European Central Bank.
    4. Franck Martin & Jiangxingyun Zhang, 2020. "La structure des taux revisitée pour période de crise : entre contagion, flight to quality et quantitative easing," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 71(4), pages 623-665.
    5. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    6. Roberto A. De Santis, 2019. "Redenomination Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2173-2206, December.
    7. Susana Martins & Cristina Amado, 2018. "Financial Market Contagion and the Sovereign Debt Crisis: A Smooth Transition Approach," NIPE Working Papers 08/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Campos-Martins, Susana & Amado, Cristina, 2022. "Financial market linkages and the sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Stan Olijslagers & Nander de Vette, 2020. "Debt sustainability when r - g smaller than 0: no free lunch after all," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-079/VI, Tinbergen Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    correlation breakdowns; government bonds; monetary policy; multivariate GARCH; regime changes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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