Sovereign Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the CDS Market
AbstractThis paper addresses the following questions. Is there evidence of financial contagion in the Eurozone? To what extent a country's vulnerability to contagion depends on "fundamentals" as opposed the government's "credibility"? We look at the empirical evidence on European sovereigns CDS spreads and estimate an econometric model where a crucial role is played by time varying parameters. We model CDS spread changes at country level as reflecting three different factors: a Global sovereign risk factor, a European sovereign risk factor and a Financial intermediaries risk factor. Our main findings are as follows. First, Unlike the US subprime crisis which affected all European sovereign risks, the Greek crisis is largely a matter concerning the Euro Zone. Second, differences in vulnerability to contagion within the Eurozone are even more remarkable: the core Eurozone members become less vulnerable to EUZ contagion, possibly due to a safe-heaven effect, while peripheric countries become more vulnerable. Finally, market fundamentals go a long way in explaining these differences: they jointly explain between 54 and 80% of the cross-country variation in idiosyncratic risks and in the vulnerability to contagion, largely supporting the "wake-up call" hypothesis according to which market participants become more wary of market fundamentals during financial crises.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number wp863.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
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Other versions of this item:
- Paolo Manasse & Luca Zavalloni, 2013. "Sovereign Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the CDS Market," Working Paper Series 08_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Paolo Manasse & Luca Zavalloni, 2013. "Sovereign Contagion in Europe: Evidence from the CDS Market," Working Papers 471, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-01-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-01-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2013-01-26 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-01-26 (Macroeconomics)
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