Public Confidence And Debt Management: A Model And A Case Study Of Italy
AbstractHigh-debt countries may face the risk of self-fulfilling debt crises. If the public expects that in the future the government will be unable to roll over the maturing debt, they may refuse to buy debt today and choose to hold foreign assets. This lack of confidence may then be self-fulfilling. This paper argues that under certain conditions, the occurrence of a confidence crisis is more likely if the average maturity of the debt is short. Conversely, a long and evenly distributed maturity structure may reduce the risk. We consider the recent Italian experience from this perspective. In particular we ask whether recent developments in the market for government debt show signs of unstable public confidence and a risk premium.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics in its series Papers with number 5.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 1989
Date of revision:
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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT LOS ANGELES, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, PROGRAM IN APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, LOS ANGELES CALIFORNIA 90024 U.S.A.
Phone: (310) 825 1011
Fax: (310) 825 9528
Web page: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/
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debt ; risk;
Other versions of this item:
- Alesina, Alberto F & Prati, Alessandro & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and a Case Study of Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alberto Alesina & Alessandro Prati & Guido Tabellini, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and A Case Study of Italy," NBER Working Papers 3135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1989.
"Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management,"
73, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 2926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
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- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September.
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