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A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis

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Harold L. Cole
Timothy J. Kehoe

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Abstract

This paper explores the extent to which the Mexican government's inability to roll over its debt during December 1994 and January 1995 can be modeled as a self-fulfilling debt crisis. In the model there is a crucial interval of debt for which the government, although it finds it optimal to repay old debt if it can sell new debt, finds it optimal to default if it cannot sell new debt. If government debt is in this interval, which we call the crisis zone, then we can construct equilibria in which a crisis can occur stochastically, depending on the realization of a sunspot variable. The size of this zone depends on the average length of maturity of government debt. Our analysis suggests that for a country, like Mexico, with a very short maturity structure of debt, the crisis zone is large and includes levels of debt as low as that in Mexico before the crisis.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 210.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:210

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Keywords: Financial crises - Mexico ; Debts; External ; Mexico;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Alesina, Alberto F & Prati, Alessandro & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "Public Confidence and Debt Management: A Model and a Case Study of Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1990. "Sustainable Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 783-802, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
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  1. Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2009. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of asia and latin america, considering the Macroeconomic fundamentals," Textos para discussão 177, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Apertura financiera y retos de políticas," RES Working Papers 4103, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds," Staff Report 410, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "¿Por qué deben las economías emergentes renunciar a su moneda nacional? El argumento a favor," RES Working Papers 4310, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. W.H. Buiter & A Sibert, 1999. "UDROP: A Small Contribution to the International Financial Architecture," CEP Discussion Papers dp0425, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Llewellyn, 2000. "Some Lessons for Regulation from Recent Bank Crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 69-109, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Claudia S. Gómez-López & Luis A. Puch, 2008. "Uso de Energía en Economías Exportadoras de Petróleo," Economic Reports 24-08, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jorge Fernández Ruiz & Blanca Cecilia García Medina, 2003. "Risk aversion and debt maturity structure," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 275-291, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  9. Mariassunta Giannetti, 2000. "Banking System, International Investors and Central Bank Policy in Emerging Markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 369, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Daniel Cohen & Sébastien Villemot, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises in Theory and Practice," RES Working Papers 4467, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fausto Hernández Trillo & Alejandro Villagómez Amezcua, 2000. "La estructura de la deuda pública en México: Lecciones y perspectivas," RES Working Papers 3104, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Aaron Tornell, 2001. "Lending Booms and Currency Crises: Empirical Link," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomics Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 47-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  13. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Policy Challenges," RES Working Papers 4102, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give Up National Currencies? A Case for Institutions Substitution," RES Working Papers 4309, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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