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Testing for contagion using correlations: some words of caution

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  • Mardi Dungey
  • Diana Zhumabekova

Abstract

Tests for contagion in financial returns using correlation analysis are seriously affected by the size of the “noncrisis” and “crisis” periods. Typically the crisis period contains relatively few observations, which seriously affects the power of the test.

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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/pbcpapers/2001/pb01-09.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 2001-09.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:2001-09

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Keywords: Financial crises ; Financial markets;

References

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  1. Luci Ellis & Eleanor Lewis, 2001. "The Response of Financial Markets in Australia and New Zealand to News about the Asian Crisis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2004. "The impact of the Argentine default on volatility co-movements in emerging bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 427-446, December.
  3. Serwa, Dobromil & Bohl, Martin T., 2005. "Financial contagion vulnerability and resistance: A comparison of European stock markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 344-362, September.
  4. Mark Mink & Jochen Mierau, 2009. "Measuring Stock Market Contagion with an Application to the Sub-prime Crisis," DNB Working Papers 217, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
  6. Guo, Feng & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2011. "Markets contagion during financial crisis: A regime-switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-109, January.
  7. gulielmo maria caporale & rea cipollini & nicola spagnolo, 2004. "Testing For Contagion: A Conditional Correlation Analysis," International Finance 0406003, EconWPA.
  8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
  9. Pretorius, Anmar & de Beer, Jesse, 2004. "Contagion in Africa: South Africa and a troubled neighbour, Zimbabwe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 703-717, July.
  10. Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
  11. Urbina, Jilber, 2013. "Contagion or Interdependence in the recent Global Financial Crisis? An application to the stock markets using unconditional cross-market correlations," Working Papers 2072/211884, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  12. Marais, E. & Bates, S., 2006. "An empirical study to identify shift contagion during the Asian crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 468-479, December.
  13. Yoon, Gawon, 2005. "Has the U.S. economy really become less correlated with that of the rest of the world?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-158, January.
  14. Inci, A. Can & Li, H.C. & McCarthy, Joseph, 2011. "Financial contagion: A local correlation analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-25, January.
  15. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
  16. Philip Arestis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Nicola Spagnolo, 2005. "Testing for financial contagion between developed and emerging markets during the 1997 East Asian crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 359-367.
  17. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Brian Lucey, 2006. "Financial Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp114, IIIS.
  18. Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
  19. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2010. "Contagion inside the credit default swaps market: The case of the GM and Ford crisis in 2005," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 109-134, April.
  20. Støve, Bård & Tjøstheim, Dag & Hufthammer, Karl Ove, 2014. "Using local Gaussian correlation in a nonlinear re-examination of financial contagion," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 62-82.

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