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Non-Linear Predictability of Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Non-Parametric and Threshold Models

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  • David G. McMillan
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews in its series Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics with number 0102.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:san:wpecon:0102

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    Postal: School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
    Phone: 01334 462420
    Fax: 01334 462444
    Web page: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/
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    Cited by:
    1. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Non-linear forecasting of stock returns: Does volume help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 115-126.
    2. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-111, June.
    3. David G. McMillan, 2009. "Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 139-155.
    4. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
    5. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2010. "Does the macroeconomy predict U.K. asset returns in a nonlinear fashion? comprehensive out-of-sample evidence," Working Papers 2010-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. David McMillan, 2004. "Non-linear predictability of UK stock market returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 63, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining Movements in UK Stock Prices: How Important is the US Market?," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0305, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. McMillan, David G., 2005. "Non-linear dynamics in international stock market returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-91.
    9. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Comovements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and timevarying conditional correlations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0805, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

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