Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Predictability?
Abstract
Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction equations. We show by means of a simulation study that, in small to medium samples, inference from this regression procedure depends on the null hypothesis that is used to generate empirical critical values. The standard assumption of a stationary error-correction term between exchange rates and fundamentals biases the results in favor of predictive power. Our results show that evidence of long-horizon predictability weakens when using empirical critical values generated under the more stringent null of no cointegration. Likewise, results are weakened using critical values generated under the null that exchange rates and fundamentals are generated by an unrestricted VAR with no integration restrictions. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of TechnologDownload Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 83 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 81-91
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:83:y:2001:i:1:p:81-91
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For corrections or technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1996. "Long-horizon exchange rate predictability?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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