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Markets contagion during financial crisis: A regime-switching approach

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  • Guo, Feng
  • Chen, Carl R.
  • Huang, Ying Sophie
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    Abstract

    Within a Markov regime-switching VAR framework, we investigate the contagion effects among the stock market, real estate market, credit default market, and energy market covering the most recent financial crisis period when markets experience regime shifts. The results demonstrate that the watershed of regimes occurs around the start of the subprime crisis in 2007, after which the "risky" regime dominates the evolution of market chaos. During the financial crisis, excluding their own shocks, stock market shock and oil price shock are the main driving forces behind the credit default market and stock market variations, respectively. The energy market also appears to be more responsive to the stock market movements than the shocks originating from housing and credit markets. However, the impacts from the credit default market on the real estate market are not significant as expected.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 20 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 95-109

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:20:y:2011:i:1:p:95-109

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

    Related research

    Keywords: Financial crisis Credit default swap Real estate market Stock market Oil price Markov regime-switching VAR;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Lin, Chien-Hsiu, 2012. "The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 161-172.
    2. Mayordomo, Sergio & Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2014. "Liquidity commonalities in the corporate CDS market around the 2007–2012 financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 171-192.
    3. Figlewski, Stephen & Frydman, Halina & Liang, Weijian, 2012. "Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-105.
    4. Zhiqiang HU & Yizhu WANG, 2013. "The IPO Cycles in China's A-share IPO Market: Detection Based on a Three Regimes Markov Switching Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 115-131, October.
    5. Joshua C.C. Chan & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Renée A. Fry-McKibbin, 2013. "A Regime Switching Skew-normal Model for Measuring Financial Crisis and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2013-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Mollah, Sabur & Zafirov, Goran & Quoreshi, AMM Shahiduzzaman, 2014. "Financial Market Contagion during the Global Financial Crisis," CITR Working Paper Series 2014/05, Center for Innovation and Technology Research, Blekinge Institute of Technology.
    7. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2014. "On the dynamic dependence between US and other developed stock markets: An extreme-value time-varying copula approach," Working Papers 2014-281, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    8. El GHINI, Ahmed & SAIDI, Youssef, 2013. "Financial Market Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Moroccan Stock Market," MPRA Paper 53392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Naifar, Nader & Al Dohaiman, Mohammed Saleh, 2013. "Nonlinear analysis among crude oil prices, stock markets' return and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 416-431.
    10. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2012. "How Should We Bank With Foreigners? An Empirical Assessment of Lending Behaviour of International Banks to Six East Asian Economies," Occasional Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number occ54, June.
    11. Nadhem Selm & Nejib Hachicha, 2014. "Can Bank be a Cause of Contagion during the Global Financial Crisis?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 353-362.
    12. Dimitris Kenourgios & Dimitrios Dimitriou, 2014. "Contagion Effects of the Global Financial Crisis in US and European Real Economy Sectors," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 275-288, June.
    13. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2014. "Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 224-234.
    14. Szymon Okoń, 2012. "New Approach to Remuneration Policy for Investment Firms: a Polish Capital Market Perspective," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 6(1), March.
    15. Chang, Guang-Di & Chen, Chia-Shih, 2014. "Evidence of contagion in global REITs investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 148-158.
    16. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2013. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages among international currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 319-332.

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