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Macro factors in the term structure of credit spreads

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  • Maurizio Luisi

    (ABN AMRO - ABN-Amro Bank, United Kingdom)

  • Jeffery D. Amato

    (Goldman Sachs International)

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    Abstract

    We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and Brated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables – indicators of real activity, inflation and financial conditions – as well as latent factors, as drivers of term structure dynamics. Our results point to three key roles played by macro factors in the term structure of spreads: they have a significant impact on the level, and particularly the slope, of the curves; they are largely responsible for variation in the prices of systematic risk; and speculative grade spreads exhibit greater sensitivity to macro shocks than high grade spreads.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 203.

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    Length: 68 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:203

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    Related research

    Keywords: corporate bonds; default intensity; event risk; risk premia; interest rate rule;

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    References

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    1. Harvey,Andrew C., 1990. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969, April.
    2. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. " Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-35, September.
    3. Dewachter, H.D.R. & Lyrio, M., 2003. "Macro factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-037-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
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    Cited by:
    1. C.N.V. Krishnan & Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson, 2007. "On forecasting the term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper 0705, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions," BIS Working Papers 281, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2008. "The integrated impact of credit and interest rate risk on banks: an economic value and capital adequacy perspective," Bank of England working papers 339, Bank of England.
    4. Georges Dionne & Geneviève Gauthier & Khemais Hammami & Mathieu Maurice & Jean-Guy Simonato, 2007. "A Reduced Form Model of Default Spreads with Markov Switching Macroeconomic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 0741, CIRPEE.
    5. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
    6. Ramaprasad Bhar & Nedim Handzic, 2011. "A Multifactor Model of Credit Spreads," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 105-127, March.
    7. Krishnan, C.N.V. & Ritchken, Peter H. & Thomson, James B., 2010. "Predicting credit spreads," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 529-563, October.
    8. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    9. Borgy, V. & Laubach, T. & Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2011. "Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads Markets," Working papers 350, Banque de France.
    10. Marco S. Matsumura, 2007. "Impact Of Macro Shocks On Sovereign Default Probabilities," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 060, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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