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Impact of Macro Shocks on Sovereign Default Probabilities

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  • Marco S. Matsumura
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    Abstract

    We use macro finance models to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve using daily data. We calculate the model implied default probabilities and a measure of the impact of macro shocks on the probabilities. An extension of the Dai-Singleton identification strategy for Gaussian models with latent and observable factors is described in order to estimate our models. Among the tested variables, VIX is the most important macro factor affecting short term bonds and default probabilities and the Fed short rate is the most important factor affecting the long term default probabilities.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1241.

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    Length: 51 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1241

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    1. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
    2. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    3. Hayne E. Leland., 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-233, University of California at Berkeley.
    4. Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
    7. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02.
    8. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    9. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2006. "Canonical term-structure models with observable factors and the dynamics of bond risk premiums," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 580, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    11. Marcos S. Matsumura & Ajax R. B. Moreira, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Brazilian Yield Curve With no Arbitrage Models," Discussion Papers 1210, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    13. Marco Matsumara & Ajax R.B. Moreira, 2005. "Can Macroeconomic Variables Account for the Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads? Studying the Brazilian Case," Discussion Papers 1106, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    14. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. " Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
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