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Expected Default Probabilities in Structural Models: Empirical Evidence

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  • Kanak Patel

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  • Ricardo Pereira

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    Abstract

    We apply a set of structural models (Black and Cox 1976; Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein 2001; Ericsson and Reneby 1998; Leland and Toft 1996; Longstaff and Schwartz 1995; Merton 1974) to estimate expected default probabilities (EDPs) for a sample of failed and non-failed UK real estate companies. Results are generally consistent with models’ predictions and estimates of EDPs for different models are closely clustered. The results of z-scores and synthetic ratings misclassify 33% of the total sample in contrast to 8% misclassification by structural models. Further analysis of EDPs based on logistic regressions suggests the observed misclassification of the companies by structural models is due to special company management and/or regulatory circumstances rather than limitations of these models. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-007-9006-1
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 107-133

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:1:p:107-133

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

    Related research

    Keywords: Expected default probabilities; Structural models; C30; G13; G33;

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    References

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    1. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
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    3. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
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    Cited by:
    1. Chia-Ling Chao & Shwu-Min Horng, 2013. "Asset write-offs discretion and accruals management in Taiwan: the role of corporate governance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 41-74, January.
    2. Jarrow, Robert A., 2011. "Credit market equilibrium theory and evidence: Revisiting the structural versus reduced form credit risk model debate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 2-7, March.
    3. Yu-Ling Lin & Ta-Cheng Chang & Su-Jing Yeh, 2012. "Default Risk and Equity Returns: Evidence from the Taiwan Equities Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 181-204, May.

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