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Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?

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  • Boris Hofmann
  • Bilyana Bogdanova

Abstract

Policy rates have on aggregate been below the levels implied by the Taylor rule for most of the period since the early 2000s in both advanced and emerging market economies. This finding suggests that monetary policy has probably been systematically accommodative for most of the past decade. The deviation may, however, in part also reflect lower levels of equilibrium real interest rates that might introduce an upward bias in the traditional Taylor rule.

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File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1209f.htm
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): (September)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1209f

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Cited by:
  1. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," Discussion Papers 11/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Sandra Eickmeier & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2013. "Understanding Global Liquidity," BIS Working Papers 402, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages R3-R13, August.
  4. Ross Kendall & Tim Ng, 2013. "Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  5. Aerdt Houben & Jan Kakes, 2013. "Financial imbalances and macroprudential policy in a currency union," DNB Occasional Studies 1105, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. Taylor, John B., 2013. "International monetary coordination and the great deviation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-472.
  7. Muneesh Kapur & Rakesh Mohan, 2014. "India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance: An Assessment and Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 14/68, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Rakesh Mohan & Muneesh Kapur, 2014. "Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks," IMF Working Papers 14/70, International Monetary Fund.
  9. José Dorich & Michael K. Johnston & Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison & Yang Zhang, 2013. "ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 100, Bank of Canada.
  10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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