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Output gaps

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  • Michael Kiley

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

substantially different covariance with GDP growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2010 Meeting Papers with number 266.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed010:266

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Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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References

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  1. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  2. Rafael Wouters & Frank Smets & Jordi Gali, 2011. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian model," 2011 Meeting Papers 1451, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2006. "Business cycle accounting," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 409, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Timothy Fuerst & Matthias Paustian & Charles Carlstorm, 2009. "Optimal monetary policy in a model with agency costs," 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 667, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  7. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert, G. William, 1979. "Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance : A dissenting opinion," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 179-186, January.
  8. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  9. Jordi Galí, 2009. "The return of the wage Phillips curve," Economics Working Papers 1199, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2010.
  10. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
  11. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
  13. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0722, European Central Bank.
  14. Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle M. Edge, 2008. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Residential Investment: A View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE Model of the U.S. Economic," 2008 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  16. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422 Elsevier.
  17. Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with durable consumption goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1341-1359, October.
  18. Giorgio Primiceri & Alejandro Justiniano, 2009. "Potential and natural output," 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 25, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
  20. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
  22. Michael Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte & Rochelle Edge, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Business Cycle: The View from a Policy-Oriented DSGE model," 2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  24. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  25. Clark, Peter K, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U.S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814, November.
  26. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  27. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  28. Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Real-Business-Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours, and Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 71-89, March.
  29. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
  30. Rochelle Edge & Michael Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2010-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Hess T. Chung & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "Documentation of the Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based (EDO) model of the U.S. economy: 2010 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 2010-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Output gaps and monetary policy at low interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I.
  4. Luca Sala & Ulf Soderstrom & Antonella Trigari, 2010. "The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours," Working Papers 365, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Michael Dotsey, 2013. "DSGE models and their use in monetary policy," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 10-16.
  6. Byron Gangnes, 2010. "The Employment Effects of Fiscal Policy: How Costly are ARRA Jobs?," Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa 2010-16, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
  7. Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Claudio Borio, 2012. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," BIS Working Papers 395, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Sandeep Mazumder, 2014. "The Impact of Educational Attainment and Gender on the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 651-662.

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