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The Employment Effects of Fiscal Policy: How Costly Are ARRA Jobs?

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  • F. Gerard Adams

    (University of Pennsylvania (Emeritus), Economics Department)

  • Byron Gangnes

    ()
    (University of Hawaii at Manoa, Economics Department)

Abstract

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was intended to stimulate the U.S.economy and to create jobs. But at what cost? In this paper, we discuss the range of potential benefits and costs associated with counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Benefits and costs may be social, macroeconomic, systemic, and budgetary. They may depend importantly on timing and implementation. There may be very different implications over the business cycle horizon and in the medium to long term. We use simulations of the IHS Global Insight macro-econometric model to evaluate some of these costs and benefits in the U.S. economy, looking specifically at the impact of the ARRA program and potential alternative policies.

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File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_10-26.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201026.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 20 Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:201026

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Keywords: fiscal policy; employment; American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA); econometric model simulation.;

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  1. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias J. & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," CFS Working Paper Series 2009/17, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Michael Kiley, 2010. "Output gaps," 2010 Meeting Papers 266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 15714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Clark, Kenneth & Leslie, Derek & Symons, Elizabeth, 1994. "The Costs of Recession," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 20-36, January.
  5. Stratford Douglas & Howard J. Wall, 2000. "The revealed cost of unemployment," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-10.
  6. Daniel J. Wilson, 2010. "Fiscal spending multipliers: evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," Working Paper Series 2010-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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