Fiscal Policy and Learning
AbstractWhat is the impact of surprise and anticipated policy changes when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations? We examine this issue using the standard stochastic real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes. Agents combine knowledge about future policy with econometric forecasts of future wages and interest rates. Both permanent and temporary policy changes are analyzed. Dynamics under learning can have large impact effects and a gradual hump-shaped response, and tend to be prominently characterized by oscillations not present under rational expectations. These fluctuations reflect periods of excessive optimism or pessimism, followed by subsequent corrections.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8891.
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Kaushik Mitra & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Learning," CDMA Working Paper Series 201202, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 18 Jun 2013.
- Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Learning," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-10, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Mitra, Kaushik & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja , Seppo, 2012. "Fiscal policy and learning," Research Discussion Papers 5/2012, Bank of Finland.
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
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