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An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia

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  • Mr. Ken Miyajima

Abstract

Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ken Miyajima, 2016. "An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia," IMF Working Papers 2016/022, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/022
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    Cited by:

    1. Miyajima, Ken & Khandelwal, Padamja & Santos, Andre, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking system in the Gulf Cooperation Council," MPRA Paper 92371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2022. "Bank Financial Stability and International Oil Prices: Evidence from Listed Russian Public Banks," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(3), pages 217-246, May.
    3. Ken Miyajima, 2020. "What influences bank lending in Saudi Arabia?," Islamic Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 125-155, April.
    4. Isma il Tijjani Idris & Sabri Nayan, 2017. "A Pooled Mean Group Approach to the Joint Effects of Oil Price Changes and Environmental Risks on Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting the Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 345-351.
    5. Pavlova, Ivelina & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Parhizgari, Ali M., 2018. "A dynamic spillover analysis of crude oil effects on the sovereign credit risk of exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 10-22.
    6. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2017. "The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-208.
    7. Nicholas Ngepah & Margarida Liandra Andrade da Silva & Charles Shaaba Saba, 2022. "The Impact of Commodity Price Shocks on Banking System Stability in Developing Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Padamja Khandelwal & Mr. Ken Miyajima & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC," IMF Working Papers 2016/161, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Bank financial stability, bank valuation and international oil prices: Evidence from listed Russian public banks," Papers 2004.12791, arXiv.org.
    10. Magda Kandil & Minko Markovski, 2019. "UAE Banks’ Performance and the Oil Price Shock: Indicators for Conventional and Islamic Banks," Working Papers 1284, Economic Research Forum, revised 2019.
    11. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Bilgili, Faik, 2020. "An investigation of the financial resource curse hypothesis in oil-exporting countries: The threshold effect of democratic accountability," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Oil structural shocks, bank-level characteristics, and systemic risk: Evidence from dual banking systems," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    13. Cheikh A. Gueye & Asithandile Mbelu & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2019. "Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks," IMF Working Papers 2019/129, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Mohanned Alharbi, 2019. "The Reliance of the Saudi Economy and Adequacy of its Foreign Reserves with Reference to Oil Price Volatility: An Overview," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 5(6), pages 329-339.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; price; bank; private sector; NPL ratio; Macro-financial linkages; nonperforming loans; panel vector autoregression; oil price; price growth; Brent crude; bank npls; solvency risk; equity price; Oil prices; Credit; Financial statements; Stocks; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Eastern Europe; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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