Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk: A practical approach for policy makers

Contents:

Author Info

  • Buncic, Daniel
  • Martin, Melecky

Abstract

Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materialising credit risk. We apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33927/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33927.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 28 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33927

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Macroprudential Supervision; Stress Test; Individual Bank Data; Eastern Europe;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & April, . "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-13, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Schechtman, Ricardo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2012. "Macro stress testing of credit risk focused on the tails," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 174-192.
  3. Christiano, Lawrence & Rostagno, Massimo & Motto, Roberto, 2010. "Financial factors in economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1192, European Central Bank.
  4. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Empirical Properties Of Closed- And Open-Economy Dsge Models Of The Euro Area," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 2-19, April.
  5. Marcella Lucchetta & Gianni De Nicoló, 2012. "Systemic Real and Financial Risks," IMF Working Papers 12/58, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Alain Laurin & Giovanni Majnoni, 2003. "Bank Loan Classification and Provisioning Practices in Selected Developed and Emerging Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 15157, October.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
  8. Daniel Buncic, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_18, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  9. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2008. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Discussion Papers 2008-11, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  10. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Anginer, Deniz & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, 2011. "Has the global banking system become more fragile over time ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5849, The World Bank.
  12. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to find plausible, severe, and useful stress scenarios," Working Papers 150, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  13. Zuzana Fungáèová & Petr Jakubík, 2012. "Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia," Working Papers IES 2012/04, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
  14. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," BIS Working Papers 296, Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
  16. Antonella Foglia, 2009. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: A Survey of Authorities' Aproaches," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(3), pages 9-45, September.
  17. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  20. Sébastien Wälti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp96, IIIS.
  21. Glick, R. & Hutchison, M., 1999. "Banking and Currency Crises: How Common are Twins?," Papers pb99-07, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  22. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Paul Atkinson, 2010. "Thinking beyond Basel III: Necessary Solutions for Capital and Liquidity," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2010(1), pages 9-33.
  23. Martin Melecky & Daniel Buncic, 2005. "An Estimated, New Keynesian Policy Model for Australia," Macroeconomics 0511026, EconWPA.
  24. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
  26. Douglas Laxton & Susanna Mursula & Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir, 2010. "The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF)," IMF Working Papers 10/34, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2010. "Macroprudential policy - a literature review," DNB Working Papers 267, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  28. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  29. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
  30. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
  31. Edward I. Altman & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2002. "The link between default and recovery rates: effects on the procyclicality of regulatory capital ratios," BIS Working Papers 113, Bank for International Settlements.
  32. Christian Schmieder & Maher Hasan & Claus Puhr, 2011. "Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 11/83, International Monetary Fund.
  33. Papke, Leslie E. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Panel data methods for fractional response variables with an application to test pass rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 121-133, July.
  34. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
  36. Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  37. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  38. Peura, Samu & Jokivuolle, Esa, 2004. "Simulation based stress tests of banks' regulatory capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1801-1824, August.
  39. Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
  40. Melecky, Martin & Podpiera, Anca Maria, 2010. "Macroprudential stress-testing practices of central banks in central and south eastern Europe : an overview and challenges ahead," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5434, The World Bank.
  41. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
  42. repec:pra:mprapa:16525 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
  2. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2013. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Assessing the Resilience of the Banking Sector Used by the Czech National Bank," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(6), pages 505-536, December.
  3. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Dynamic Stress Testing: The Framework for Testing Banking Sector Resilience Used by the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2012/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  4. Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33927. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.