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Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates

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  • Buncic, Daniel

Abstract

The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample evaluation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22 steps head. The study finds that no forecast gains over a simple AR(1) specification exist at any of the forecast horizons that are considered, regardless of whether point or density forecasts are utilised in the evaluation. Non-parametric methods are used in conjunction with simulation techniques to learn about the models and their forecasts. It is shown graphically that the nonlinearity in the point forecasts of the ESTAR model decreases as the forecast horizon increases. The non-parametric methods show also that the multiple steps ahead forecast densities are normal looking with no signs of bi-modality, skewness or kurtosis. Overall, there seems little to be gained from using an ESTAR specification over a simple AR(1) model.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16526.

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Date of creation: 03 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16526

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Keywords: Purchasing power parity; regime modelling; non-linear real exchange rate models; ESTAR; forecast evaluation; density forecasts; non-parametric methods.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
  2. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2011. "A New Modelling Test: The Univariate MT-STAR Model," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11083r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Aug 2013.
  3. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2011. "A test for a new modelling: The Univariate MT-STAR Model," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11083, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  4. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00659158 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk : a practical approach for policy makers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5936, The World Bank.
  6. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Understanding Exchange Rates Dynamics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00803447, HAL.

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