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Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era

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Author Info
Menzie D. Chinn
Guy Meredith

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Abstract

The hypothesis that interest rate differentials are unbiased predictors of future exchange rate movements has been almost universally rejected in empirical studies. In contrast to previous studies, which have used short-horizon data, we test this hypothesis using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the U.S., Germany, Japan and Canada. The results of these long-horizon regressions are much more positive -- the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and most are closer to the predicted value of unity than to zero. These results are robust to the use of different data frequencies, sample periods, yield definitions, and base currencies. We appeal to an econometric interpretation of the results, which focuses on the presence of simultaneity in a cointegration framework.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11077.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11077

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," Finance 0409032, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Rappai & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Uncovering Yield Parity: A new insight into the UIP puzzle through the stationarity of long maturity forward rates," DNB Working Papers 098, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Working Papers 0603, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christoph Sax, 2006. "Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Movements: Analyzing Short-term Investments in Long-term Bonds," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 205-220, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Martin Cincibuch & David Vavra, 2004. "Testing for the uncovered interest parity using distributions implied by FX options," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hannes Haushofer & Gabriel Moser & Renate Unger, 2005. "Fundamental and Nonfundamental Factors in the Euro/U.S. Dollar Market in 2002 and 2003," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 58-76, April. [Downloadable!]
  7. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Clemens Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Otavio De Medeiros, 2005. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Brazil," Finance 0503019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1010, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2003. "Net foreign assets and imperfect pass-through: the consumption real exchange rate anomaly," International Finance Discussion Papers 764, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Alberto Humala, 2006. "Depreciation expectations and interest rate differentials: Are there regime switches? The Peruvian case," Working Papers 2006-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  12. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Working Paper Series 2006-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2003. "Net Foreign Assets And Imperfect Financial Integration: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 252, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Christophe Chamley, 2006. "Complementarities in information acquisition with short-term trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-042, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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