Cointegration and Forward and Spot Exchange Rate Regressions
AbstractIn this paper we investigate in detail the relationship between models of cointegration between the current spot exchange rate, st, and the current forward rate, ft, and models of cointegration between the future spot rate, st+1, and ft and the implications of this relationship for tests of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH). We argue that simple models of cointegration between st and ft more easily capture the stylized facts of typical exchange rate data than simple models of cointegration between st+1 and ft and so serve as a natural starting point for the analysis of exchange rate behavior. We show that simple models of cointegration between st and ft imply rather complicated models of cointegration between st+1 and ft. As a result, standard methods are often not appropriate for modeling the cointegrated behavior of (st+1, ft)' and we show that the use of such methods can lead to erroneous inferences regarding the FRUH.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9812001.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 22 Dec 1998
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cointegration; exchange rates; forward rate unbiasedness; weak exogeneity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-02-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-1999-02-22 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-1999-02-15 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-IFN-1999-02-15 (International Finance)
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