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Cointegration and Forward and Spot Exchange Rate Regressions

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Author Info

  • Eric Zivot

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate in detail the relationship between models of cointegration between the current spot exchange rate, st, and the current forward rate, ft, and models of cointegration between the future spot rate, st+1, and ft and the implications of this relationship for tests of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH). We argue that simple models of cointegration between st and ft more easily capture the stylized facts of typical exchange rate data than simple models of cointegration between st+1 and ft and so serve as a natural starting point for the analysis of exchange rate behavior. We show that simple models of cointegration between st and ft imply rather complicated models of cointegration between st+1 and ft. As a result, standard methods are often not appropriate for modeling the cointegrated behavior of (st+1, ft)' and we show that the use of such methods can lead to erroneous inferences regarding the FRUH.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9812001.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 22 Dec 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9812001

Note: Type of Document - Adobe Acrobat; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on N/A; pages: 36; figures: included
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: cointegration; exchange rates; forward rate unbiasedness; weak exogeneity;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Young-Kyu Moh, 2006. "Continuous-time model of uncovered interest parity with regulated jump-diffusion interest differential," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2523-2533.
  2. Young-Kyu Moh & Nelson C. Mark, 2004. "Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Parity in the Dollar-DM Market," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 762, Econometric Society.
  3. Sofiane Sekioua, 2004. "The forward unbiasedness hypothesis and the forward premium: a nonlinear analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Trinity Economics Papers tep2006, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  5. Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2002. "Has the link between the spot and forward exchange rates broken down? Evidence from rolling cointegration tests," ZEI Working Papers B 08-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  6. Wagner, Christian, 2009. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Economic Value of Currency Speculation," MPRA Paper 21125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hiroaki Chigira, 2005. "A Test of Serial Independence of Deviations from Cointegrating Relations," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-69, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  9. Bams, Dennis & Walkowiak, Kim & Wolff, Christian C, 2003. "More Evidence on the Dollar Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3726, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Clinton Watkins & Michael McAleer, 2006. "Pricing of non-ferrous metals futures on the London Metal Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 853-880.
  11. David McMillan, 2005. "Cointegrating behaviour between spot and forward exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1135-1144.
  12. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing uncovered interest parity at short and long horizons," HWWA Discussion Papers 102, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  13. Haitham A. Al-Zoubi & Dana A. Al-Zoubi & Aktham I. Maghyereh, 2006. "A nonparametric cointegration analysis of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 223-227, July.
  14. Nikolaos Giannellis & Athanasios Papadopoulos, 2006. "Testing for Efficiency in Selected Developing Foreign Exchange Markets: An Equilibrium-based Approach," Working Papers 0717, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

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