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Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly

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Author Info
Alex Maynard (Department of Economics, University of Toronto, Canada)
Peter C. B. Phillips (Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, USA)

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Abstract

Using both semiparametric and parametric estimation methods, this paper corroborates earlier findings of fractionally integrated behaviour in the forward premium. Two new explanations are also proposed to help reconcile earlier conflicting empirical evidence on the time series properties of the forward premium. Traditional regression approaches used to test the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis are then evaluated, including regression in levels, in returns (Fama's, 1984, regression), and in error-correction format. Interesting statistical and|or interpretive implications are found in all three cases. For example, the predictions of the appropriate nonstandard limit theory are consistent with many of the standard empirical results reported from Fama's regression, including the commonly occurring, yet puzzling negative correlations between spot returns and the forward premium. It is suggested that the principal failure of unbiasedness, may be due instead to the difference in persistence between these two series. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2001)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 671-708
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:16:y:2001:i:6:p:671-708

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors," CEPR Discussion Papers 773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Newbold, Paul & Wohar, Mark E. & Rayner, Tony & Kellard, Neil & Ennew, Christine, 1998. "Two puzzles in the analysis of foreign exchange market efficiency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 95-111. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:4:p:489-500 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "The Time Variation of Expected Returns and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 397-408, October.
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima L, 1997. "Why Does the Spot-Forward Discount Fail to Predict Changes in Future Spot Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 121-29, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  12. Lewis, K.K., 1994. "Puzzles in international Financial Markets," Weiss Center Working Papers 94-7, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  15. Karen K. Lewis, 1994. "Puzzles in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 4951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Crowder, William J, 1994. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and common stochastic trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 551-564, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Working Papers 93-12, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  21. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1244, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1243, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  23. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Testing forward exchange rate unbiasedness efficiently: a semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 325-353, November. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers, 1999. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," International Finance Discussion Papers 652, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Aaron Smallwood; Alex Maynard; Mark Wohar, 2005. "The Long and the Short of It: Long Memory Regressors and Predictive Regressions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 384, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sergey V. Chernenko, 2004. "The information content of forward and futures prices: market expectations and the price of risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 808, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Jin Lee, 2007. "Fractionally Integrated Long Horizon Regressions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1337-1337. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration with Unknown Mean and Time Trend," Working Papers 1061, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Chang Sik Kim & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Log Periodogram Regression: The Nonstationary Case," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1587, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Trinity Economics Papers tep2006, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889. [Downloadable!]
  12. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jin Lee, 2005. "Long horizon regressions with moderate deviations from a unit root," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(52), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  15. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Oe., . "Estimation of Fractional Integration in the Presence of Data Noise," Economics Working Papers 2003-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Javier Hualde, 2005. "Unbalanced Cointegration," Faculty Working Papers 06/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
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