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Why Does the Spot-Forward Discount Fail to Predict Changes in Future Spot Rates

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  • Goodhart, Charles A E
  • McMahon, Patrick C
  • Ngama, Yerima L

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima L, 1997. "Why Does the Spot-Forward Discount Fail to Predict Changes in Future Spot Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 121-129, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:2:y:1997:i:2:p:121-29
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
    2. Alex Maynard, 2003. "Testing for Forward-Rate Unbiasedness: On Regression in Levels and in Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 313-327, May.
    3. Thomas Chiang & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2005. "International Asset Excess Returns and Multivariate Conditional Volatilities," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 295-312, May.
    4. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
    5. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
    7. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.
    8. Daniel L. Thornton, 2019. "Resolving the unbiasedness and forward premium puzzles," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 5-27, February.
    9. Detken, Carsten & Gaspar, Ví­tor, 2003. "Maintaining price stability under free-floating: a fearless way out of the corner?," Working Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    10. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2008. "Testing the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis during the 1920s," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-373, October.
    11. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "Resolving the unbiasedness puzzle in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2009-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.
    13. Fu, Hsuan & Luger, Richard, 2022. "Multiple testing of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis across currencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 232-245.

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