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International Asset Excess Returns and Multivariate Conditional Volatilities

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Author Info
Thomas Chiang ()
Sheng-Yung Yang ()

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Abstract

This paper constructs a multivariate model in relating multi-asset excess returns to their conditional variances. Applying weekly data to investigate the foreign-exchange risk premium, the evidence from a multivariate GARCH model shows that the foreign-exchange excess returns are significantly correlated with economic fundamentals such as the real interest-rate differential, long-short interest-rate spread differential, and equity-premium differential. The evidence also suggests that foreign-exchange excess returns are not independent of the conditional variances of these fundamental variables, supporting the time-varying risk-premium hypothesis. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-005-6868-2
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.

Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 295-312
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:24:y:2005:i:3:p:295-312

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Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102990

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rate risk; time-varying risk premiums; international asset pricing; multivariate GARCH model;

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    Other versions:
  3. Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "Testing the portfolio balance model: A multi-lateral approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 109-127, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-38, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989. " The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-25, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Hu, Xiaoqiang, 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 699-718, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Chiang, Thomas C, 1988. "The Forward Rate as a Predictor of the Future Spot Rate--A Stochastic Coefficient Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 212-32, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  20. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Marston, Richard C., 1997. "Tests of three parity conditions: Distinguishing risk premia and systematic forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 285-303, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Jiang, Christine & Chiang, Thomas C, 2000. "Do Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums Relate to the Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Equity Markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 95-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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