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International Asset Excess Returns and Multivariate Conditional Volatilities

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  • Thomas Chiang

    ()

  • Sheng-Yung Yang

    ()

Abstract

This paper constructs a multivariate model in relating multi-asset excess returns to their conditional variances. Applying weekly data to investigate the foreign-exchange risk premium, the evidence from a multivariate GARCH model shows that the foreign-exchange excess returns are significantly correlated with economic fundamentals such as the real interest-rate differential, long-short interest-rate spread differential, and equity-premium differential. The evidence also suggests that foreign-exchange excess returns are not independent of the conditional variances of these fundamental variables, supporting the time-varying risk-premium hypothesis. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-005-6868-2
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting.

Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 295-312

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Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:24:y:2005:i:3:p:295-312

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Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=102990

Related research

Keywords: exchange rate risk; time-varying risk premiums; international asset pricing; multivariate GARCH model;

References

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  11. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "On time varying risk premia in the foreign exchange market: An econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-18, July.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Charles Engel, 1985. "Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," NBER Working Papers 1051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Marston, Richard C., 1997. "Tests of three parity conditions: Distinguishing risk premia and systematic forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 285-303, April.
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  17. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
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  21. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  22. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  23. Hu, Xiaoqiang, 1997. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 699-718, September.
  24. Morley, Bruce & Pentecost, Eric J., 1998. "Asset pricing and foreign exchange risk: econometric evidence for the G-7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 317-329, April.
  25. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 241-256, June.
  26. Lewis, Karen K., 1988. "Testing the portfolio balance model: A multi-lateral approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 109-127, February.
  27. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "The Time Variation of Expected Returns and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 397-408, October.
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