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Parameterizing Currency Risk in the EMS: The Irish Pound and Spanish Peseta against the German Mark

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Author Info
Paul D. McNelis (Georgetown University)
G.C. Lim (University of Melbourne)

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Abstract

This paper compares alternative estimates of systemic time-varying excess returns for the Irish pound and the Spanish peseta, against the German mark, since 1985. We make use of progressively more complex models, going from the GARCH in Mean specification, to the International Capital Asset Pricing model (ICAPM) with a time-varying "beta", to a general equilibrium Constant Relative Risk Aversion model (CRRA), with trivariate GARCH-M estimation. The results show significant relative risk aversion as well as significant volatility effects on redictable excess returns. The time-varying "beta" has also declined in the past five years for both Ireland and Spain.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 9805001.

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Date of creation: 05 May 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9805001

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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  7. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "The Time Variation of Expected Returns and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 397-408, October.
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  10. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-38, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums," NBER Working Papers 3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 1997. "A multivariate GARCH model of risk premia in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-79, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
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  26. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Bodurtha, James N, Jr & Mark, Nelson C, 1991. " Testing the CAPM with Time-Varying Risks and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1485-1505, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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