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Testing the CAPM with Time-Varying Risks and Returns

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Author Info
 Bodurtha, James N, Jr
Mark, Nelson C

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Abstract

This paper draws on Robert F. Engle's autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic modeling strategy to formulate a conditional capital asset pricing model with time-varying risk and expected returns. The model is estimated by generalized method of moments. A capital asset pricing model that allows mean excess returns to shift in January survives generalized method of moments specification tests for a number of omitted variables. However, a residual dividend yield component is found to remain in the excess returns of smaller firms. The authors find significant monthly and quarterly components in the risk premia and beta estimates. Copyright 1991 by American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1082%28199109%2946%3A4%3C1485%3ATTCWTR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-W&origin=repec
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 46 (1991)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1485-1505
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:46:y:1991:i:4:p:1485-1505

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  1. Charles Engel & Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1993. "The Constrained Asset Share Estimation (CASE) Method: Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 4294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Marco Antonio Bonomo & Rene Garcia, 1997. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Textos para discussão 368, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. David Morelli, 2003. "Capital asset pricing model on UK securities using ARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 211-223, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2005. "Market Risk in Demutualised Self-Listed Stock Exchanges: An International Analysis of Selected Time-Varying Betas," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 201, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  7. Goeij, P. de & Marquering, W.A., 2002. "Modeling the Conditional Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns," Research Paper ERS-2002-11-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  8. Paul D. McNelis & G.C. Lim, 1998. "Parameterizing Currency Risk in the EMS: The Irish Pound and Spanish Peseta against the German Mark," International Finance 9805001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "Market Risk in Demutualized Self-Listed Stock Exchanges: An International Analysis of Selected Time-Varying Betas," Global Economic Review, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 239-257, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Christian Conrad & Enno Mammen, 2008. "Nonparametric Regression on Latent Covariates with an Application to Semiparametric GARCH-in-Mean Models," Working Papers 0473, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  11. John H. Boyd & Ravi Jagannathan & Jian Hu, 2001. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News is Usually Good for Stocks," NBER Working Papers 8092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "The Conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:48, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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