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The Time Variation of Expected Returns and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Markets

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Author Info

  • Bekaert, Geert

Abstract

This paper analyzes the time variation in conditional means and variances of monthly and quarterly excess dollar returns on Eurocurrency investments. All results are based on a vector autoregression with weekly sampled data on exchange rate changes and forward premiums of three currencies. Both past exchange rate changes and forward premiums predict future forward market returns. Moreover, past forward premium volatilities predict the volatility of exchange rates. Expected forward market returns are very variable, persistent, and exhibit marked comovements. These results carry over to cross-rate (for example yen/mark) investments as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 13 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 397-408
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:13:y:1995:i:4:p:397-408

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Cited by:
  1. Alexandra Horobet & Sorin Dumitrescu & Dan Gabriel Dumitrescu, 2009. "Uncovered Interest Parity and Financial Market Volatility," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 12(32), pages 21-45, (2).
  2. Elliott, Graham & ITO, TAKATOSHI, 1998. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange Rate Market," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5wm0q8mz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  3. Diez de los Rios, Antonio & Sentana, Enrique, 2007. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6516, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1996. "Affine Models of Currency Pricing," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-9, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  5. Bekaert, G.R.J. & Gray, S.F., 1997. "Target zones and exchange rates: An empirical investigation," Discussion Paper 1997-22, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Paul D. McNelis & G.C. Lim, 1998. "Parameterizing Currency Risk in the EMS: The Irish Pound and Spanish Peseta against the German Mark," International Finance 9805001, EconWPA.
  7. repec:cdl:ucsdec:556585 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Rituparna Kar & Nityananda Sarkar, 2006. "Mean and volatility dynamics of Indian rupee/US dollar exchange rate series: an empirical investigation," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 41-69, March.
  9. Jesus Rodriguez Lopez & Hugo Rodriguez Mendizabal, 2003. "How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 593.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  10. HOROBET Alexandra Lavinia & DUMITRESCU Sorin-Adrian & DUMITRESCU Dan-Gabriel, 2009. "Exchange Rates And Volatility In Central And Eastern Europe: A Test For Uncovered Interest Parity," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 552-557, May.
  11. James R. Lothian & Liuren Wu, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Over the Past Two Centuries," International Finance 0311009, EconWPA.
  12. Thomas Chiang & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2005. "International Asset Excess Returns and Multivariate Conditional Volatilities," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 295-312, May.
  13. Campbell, Rachel & Koedijk, Kees & Lothian, James R & Mahieu, Ronald J, 2007. "Irving Fisher, Expectational Errors, and the UIP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2003. "How Tight Should Central Bank’s Hands be Tied? Credibility, Volatility and the Optimal Band Width of a Target Zone," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/24, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  15. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange regimes," Working Papers 06.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  16. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
  17. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Carry Trades and Global FX Volatility," MPRA Paper 14728, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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