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The Time-Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

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Author Info
Alberto Giovannini
Philippe Jorion

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Abstract

Recent empirical work indicates that, in a variety of financial markets, both conditional expectations and conditional variances of returns are time- varying. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether these joint fluctuations of conditional first and second moments are consistent with the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin capital-asset-pricing model. We test the mean-variance model under several different assumptions about the time-variation of conditional second moments of returns, using weekly data from July 1974 to December 1986, that include returns on a portfolio composed of dollar, Deutsche mark, Sterling, and Swiss franc assets, together with the US stock market. The model is estimated constraining risk premia to depend on the time-varying conditional covariance matrix of the residuals of the expected returns equations. The results indicate that estimated conditional variances cannot explain the observed time-variation of risk premia. Furthermore, the constraints imposed by the static CAPH are always rejected.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2573.

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Date of creation: Nov 1989
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2573

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," Working papers 353, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1986. "The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Richard Meese., 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable," Economics Working Papers 8738, University of California at Berkeley.
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  9. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Farmer, Roger, 1987. "Closed-Form Solutions to Dynamic Stochastic Choice Problems," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 282, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  12. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ferson, Wayne E & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Tests of Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Expected Risk Premiums and Market Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 201-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Salem Boubakri, 2009. "Une mesure financière de l’importance de la prime de risque de change dans la prime de risque boursière," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-5, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  3. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1990. "Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: an empirical investigation of daily effects," Working Paper 9009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  4. Claessens, Stijn, 1993. "Equity portfolio investment in developing countries : a literature survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1089, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. K.C. Chan & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 1992. "Global Financial Markets and the Risk Premium on U.S. Equity," NBER Working Papers 4074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "International Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing: An Integrative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1993. "An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns," NBER Working Papers 4595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 4590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Kathryn M. Dominguez & Jeffrey Frankel, 1994. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects for the Mark," NBER Working Papers 3299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1992. "New results on the impact of central-bank intervention on deviations from uncovered interest parity," Working Paper 9207, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bruno Solnik, 1991. "Finance Theory and Investment Management," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 127(III), pages 303-324, September. [Downloadable!]
  13. Camiel de Koning & Stefan Straetmans, 1997. "Variation in the Slope Coefficient of the Fama Regression for Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Fixed and Time-varying Coefficient Approaches," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-014/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  14. Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Time Variation And Asymmetry In The World Price Of Covariance Risk: The Implications For International Diversification," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 907, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  15. Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Jorion, 1989. "Time-Series Tests of a Non-Expected-Utility Model of Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 3195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Thomas Chiang & Sheng-Yung Yang, 2005. "International Asset Excess Returns and Multivariate Conditional Volatilities," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 295-312, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Thomas J. Flavin, 2006. "How Risk Averse are Fund Managers? Evidence from Irish Mutual Funds," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1630206, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Bernard Dumas & Bruno Solnik, 1993. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," NBER Working Papers 4459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2006. "Crossing the Lines: The Conditional Relation between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets," MPRA Paper 14018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Nov 2008. [Downloadable!]
  20. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "International diversification strategies," Working Paper 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  21. Giorgio De Santis & Bruno Gerard, 1995. "Time-varying risk and international portfolio diversification with contagious bear markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 99, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  22. Bernard Dumas, 1993. "Partial- Vs. General-Equilibrium Models of the International Capital Market," NBER Working Papers 4446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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