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Uncertainty and Liquidity

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  • Alberto Giovannini
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    Abstract

    This paper studies a model where money is valued for the liquidity services it provides in the future. These liquidity services cannot be provided by any other asset. Changes in expectations of the value of future liquidity services affect the desired proportions of money and other assets in agents' portfolios, and, as a result, they change nominal interest rates and real stock prices. The paper concentrates on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in the distribution of exogenous shocks. I find that changes in dividend risk have effects opposite to those in standard dynamic portfolio models without money. Furthermore, shifts between money and other assets that are driven by precautionary liquidity demand make nominal interest rates capture information about the uncertainty in the economy more accurately than any other prices in the asset markets.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w2296.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2296.

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    Date of creation: Jun 1987
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    Publication status: published as Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 23, pp. 239-258, (1989).
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2296

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    1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Money and Asset Prices in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 919-44, October.
    2. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January.
    3. Andrew Abel, . "Stock Prices Under Time-Varying Dividend Risk: An Exact Solution in an Infinite-Horizon General Equilibrium Model," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Alan C. Stockman, 1978. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," UCLA Economics Working Papers 113, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Stulz, ReneM., 1986. "Interest rates and monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 331-347, May.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
    7. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    9. Malkiel, Burton G, 1979. "The Capital Formation Problem in the United States," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 291-306, May.
    10. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
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    12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
    13. Gertler, Mark & Grinols, Earl, 1982. "Monetary randomness and investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 239-258.
    14. Robert S. Pindyck, 1983. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 1186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
    17. Selden, Larry, 1979. "An OCE Analysis of the Effect of Uncertainty on Saving under Risk Preference Independence," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 73-82, January.
    18. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    19. James Tobin, 1956. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 14, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
    21. Mascaro, Angelo & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 485-518, November.
    22. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    23. Fama, Eugene F, 1982. "Inflation, Output, and Money," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 201-31, April.
    24. Fischer, Stanley, 1975. "The Demand for Index Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(3), pages 509-34, June.
    25. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Rankin, Neil, 1994. "Nominal Rigidity and Monetary Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989. " The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-25, June.
    3. Rankin, Neil, 1995. "Nominal Rigidity and Monetary Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bossone, Biagio, 2014. "Liquidity and capital under uncertainty and changing market sentiment: A simple analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 98-105.
    5. Jamsheed Shorish & Stephen E. Spear, 2005. "Shaking the tree: an agency-theoretic model of asset pricing," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 51-72, 01.
    6. Bossone, Biagio, 1999. "The role of trust in financial sector development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2200, The World Bank.

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