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Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium

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Jeffrey A. Frankel

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Abstract

The optimal-diversification model of investors' portfolio behavior can give a linear relationship between the exchange risk premium and the conditional exchange rate variance. This note surveys recent empirical work that allows for the conditional variance itself, and therefore the risk premium, to vary over time. In particular, it examines the implications of recent empirical estimates for earlier arguments, based on the assumption that the conditional variance was constant over time, that the exchange risk premium had to be small in magnitude and variability.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2367.

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Date of creation: Sep 1988
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2367

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1986. "The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1982. "In search of the exchange risk premium: A six-currency test assuming mean-variance optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 255-274, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Hsieh, David A., 1984. "Tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 173-184, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1986. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: a multivariate latent factor ARCH model," Special Studies Papers 205, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Richard Meese., 1987. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable," Economics Working Papers 8738, University of California at Berkeley.
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  8. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1987. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," NBER Working Papers 2303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Richard K. Lyons, 1986. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 290, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Bilson, John F O, 1985. "Macroeconomic Stability and Flexible Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 62-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1987. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," NBER Working Papers 2303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," NBER Working Papers 3466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Fischer Black, 1989. "Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging," NBER Working Papers 2947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability," NBER Working Papers 3218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tim Bollerslev & Ray Y. Chou & Narayanan Jayaraman & Kenneth F. Kroner, 1991. "Les modéles ARCH en finance : un point sur la théorie et les résultats empiriques," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 24, pages 01, Octobre-D. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Gruen & Marianne Gizycki, 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is it Anchoring?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9307, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  10. David WR Gruen & Gordon D Menzies, 1991. "The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9103, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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