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Currency Hedging over Long Horizons

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  • Kenneth A. Froot

Abstract

This paper reexamines the widely-held wisdom that the currency exposure of international investments should be entirely hedged. It finds that the previously documented ability of hedges to reduce portfolio return variance holds at short horizons, but not at long horizons. At horizons of several years, complete hedging not only does not lower return variance, it actually increases the return variance of many portfolios. Hedge ratios chosen to minimize long-run return variance are not only low, they also have no perceptible impact on return variance. The paper reports and explores these results, their apparent causes, and investigates their implications for hedging practice.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4355.

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Date of creation: May 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4355

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium," Economics Working Papers 8866, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Siegel, Jeremy J., 1992. "The real rate of interest from 1800-1990 : A study of the U.S. and the U.K," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-252, April.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Recent Estimates of the Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt23c9q73d, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  5. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  6. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  7. Diebold, Francis X & Husted, Steven & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1252-71, December.
  8. Froot, Kenneth A & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-61, February.
  9. Kaplanis, Evi & Schaefer, Stephen M., 1991. "Exchange risk and international diversification in bond and equity portfolios," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 287-307, November.
  10. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  11. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
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