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Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors

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Author Info
Campbell, John Y
Viceira, Luis M
White, Josh S.

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Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that conservative investors should avoid exposure to foreign currency risk. Even if they hold foreign equities, they should hedge the currency exposure of these positions and should hold only domestic Treasury bills. This Paper argues that the conventional wisdom may be wrong for long-term investors. Domestic bills are risky for long-term investors because real interest rates vary over time, and bills must be rolled over at uncertain future interest rates. This risk can be hedged by holding foreign currency if the domestic currency tends to depreciate when the domestic real interest rate falls, as implied by the theory of uncovered interest parity. Empirically this effect is important and can lead conservative long-term investors to hold more than half their wealth in foreign currency.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3463.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3463

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Related research
Keywords: foreign exchange rates; home bias; intertemporal hedging demand; portfolio choice; uncovered interest parity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nicola Carcano, 2007. "Country and currency diversification of bond investments: do they really make sense for Swiss investors?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 95-120, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Philip R. Lane, 2005. "Global bond portfolios and EMU," Working Paper Series 553, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Susan Thorp, 2004. "That Courage is not inconsistent with Caution: Foreign Currency Hedging for Superannuation Funds," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 148, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. De Nicolo, Gianni & Honohan, Patrick & Ize, Alain, 2003. "Dollarization of the banking system : good or bad?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3116, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty-de Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2007. "Global Currency Hedging," NBER Working Papers 13088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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