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The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff

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Author Info
Campbell, John Y
Viceira, Luis M

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Abstract

Recent research in empirical finance has documented that expected excess returns on bonds and stocks, real interest rates, and risk shift over time in predictable ways. Furthermore, these shifts tend to persist over long periods of time. In this paper we propose an empirical model that is able to capture these complex dynamics, yet is simple to apply in practice, and we explore its implications for asset allocation. Changes in investment opportunities can alter the risk-return tradeoff of bonds, stocks, and cash across investment horizons, thus creating a ‘term structure of the risk-return tradeoff’. We show how to extract this term structure from our parsimonious model of return dynamics, and illustrate our approach using data from the US stock and bond markets. We find that asset return predictability has important effects on the variance and correlation structure of returns on stocks, bonds and T-bills across investment horizons.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4914.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4914

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Related research
Keywords: long-horizon investing; mean-variance analysis; risk-return tradeoff; vector autoregression;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  6. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Campbell, John Y. & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M., 2003. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption And Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns Are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Michael W. Brandt & Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara & Jonathan Storud, 2004. "A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jurek, Jakub W & Viceira, Luis M, 2006. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 5773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Investing for the long-run in European real estate," Working Papers 2006-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Martín Gonzales-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2007. "Population Ageing, Government Budgets, and Productivity Growth in Politico-Economic Equilibrium," Working Papers 07.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Brunner, Gregory & Hinz, Richard & Rocha, Roberto, 2008. "Risk-based supervision of pension funds : a review of international experience and preliminary assessment of the first outcomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4491, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Vlaar, 2005. "Defined Benefit Pension Plans and Regulation," DNB Working Papers 063, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Aleksandar Murdzhev & Marc Tomljanovich, 2006. "What Color is Alan Greenspan's Tie? How Central Bank Policy Announcements Have Changed Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-593, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  7. Martín Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2005. "Sustaining Social Security," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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